Reality Trumps Math

  I have been reminded approximately 47 times since Wednesday night's debacle in Rockford that the Rampage are still in good shape to make the playoffs because of games in hand and all other kinds of probabilities and statistics. Unfortunately, the only true numbers that matter are the two numbers on the scoreboard. And using the good, old fashioned eye test tells me that this season is pretty much done barring a major turn of events.

  The Rampage were a top 5 team in the league at the 40 game mark, posting a record of 25-14-1 (51 pts). In the 30 games since that point. the Rampage have gone 12-16-2-2 (28 pts). While injuries in both San Antonio and Phoenix have shuffled the Rampage lineup a bit, the attitude displayed during the first half of the season is just gone. The team has shown flashes of the hard nosed style of play needed to win when your most skilled players are in Phoenix, but overall, the effort disappears at the first sign of adversity.

  The Goalies have been below average, but can hardly be blamed for the slide. They are getting absolutely zero help from the defense. Earlier in the season, the defense would play solid and steady with the occasional mental snafu that would eventually lead to a goal. Lately, the defense is just plain lacking. In the last 10 games alone, the defensive pairing of Jeff May (-17) and Nolan Yonkman (-11) has been abysmal. I called for May to play more early in the season when rookies Michael Stone and Maxim Goncharov would make me pull my hair out on a nightly basis. Had I known May was going to turn into the second coming off Matt Jones, I would have stayed quiet.

  Another problem is how the team is currently constructed. In my opinion, they have exactly one play maker on the entire roster. And that player, Randy Robitaiile, is 35 years old and seeing his first extended action in over a year. With Ebbett and Boedker in Phoenix, the ability to create just isn't on the team. Picard, Byers, Watkins, and Kearns are all great finishers, but none of those guys will be mistaken as a set up guy any time soon. They are trying, but when Picard and Lukacevic are they guys with the puck on their sticks entering the zone, when they should be they guys getting in the goalie's kitchen and finishing, scoring is going to be a problem. Mathieu Beaudoin has shown flashes as both a finisher and a play maker, but he can also disappear for 5 or 6 games at a time.

  It's frustrating, as a fan, to see where this team was just 2 months ago and to see where they are now. In a huge uphill battle just to get into the playoffs to play a far superior team, when just 8 weeks ago, they would have been that team getting chased.

  But...such is life in the AHL. Where a single injury or trade deadline deal can turn a team upside down.